矿山工程建设项目造价管理信息系统设计

为提高矿山工程建设项目造价管理水平,设计了矿山工程建设项目造价管理系统。通过分析矿山工程项目的造价组成,并采用三层B/S架构设计系统硬件框架,运用Web服务器传输矿山工程项目各项数据,划分系统功能子系统,并对矿山工程建设项目造价额与价差预备费进行计算,完成系统软件设计。结果表明,该系统能够有效管理矿山工程建设项目造价,并对外部的恶意攻击进行及时报警,系统具有有效性与安全性。     

Shale gas pad development planning under price uncertainty

In this article, we study shale gas pad development under natural gas price uncertainty. We optimize the sequence of operations, gas curtailment, and storage on a single pad to maximize the net present value. The optimization problem is formulated as an mixed-integer linear programming model, which is similar to the one proposed by Ondeck et al. We investigate how natural gas price uncertainty affects the operation strategy in the pad development. Both two-stage and multistage stochastic programming are used as the mathematical framework to hedge against uncertainty. Our case study shows that there is value of using stochastic programming when the price variance is high. However, when the variance of the price is low, solving the stochastic programming problems does not create additional value compared with solving the deterministic problem.     

动力煤期货价格波动对我国煤炭经济影响研究*

采用中国煤炭价格指数、中国煤炭市场景气指数、中国煤炭市场预期指数和煤炭行业失业率作为我国煤炭经济发展的代表变量,选取2013年9月～2018年7月之间的交易数据,构建VAR模型,研究了动力煤期货价格与中国煤炭价格指数、中国煤炭市场景气指数、中国煤炭市场预期指数和煤炭行业失业率之间的动态关系。格兰杰因果检验表明:国内动力煤期货价格是中国煤炭价格指数、中国煤炭市场景气指数、中国煤炭市场预期指数和煤炭行业失业率的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解分析表明:动力煤期货价格波动会引起中国煤炭市场景气度同方向变动;滞后2阶的动力煤期货价格上涨会使得中国煤炭市场预期指数上升;滞后2阶动力煤期货价格上涨,失业率降低。长期来看,动力煤期货价格上涨会使得失业率降低,动力煤期货价格与我国煤炭经济发展之间呈现动态均衡关系。     

无烟煤制工业燃气项目原料煤价与经济性的关系分析

针对我国建材行业传统使用的常压固定床煤气发生炉及化肥行业固定床间歇气化炉面临淘汰,无烟煤市场萎缩的情况,提出以晋城无烟煤为原料,利用赛鼎碎煤加压气化技术,生产适合建材行业大规模使用的工业燃气。以无烟煤为原料的河北沙河年产26亿m^3工业清洁燃气项目为基础,对无烟煤与天然气价格、项目经济性的关系进行了分析,结果表明,以晋城无烟块煤运到河北沙河的到厂价935元/t计算,盈亏平衡天然气价约2.26元/m^3;以沙河工业天然气到户售价2.5元/m^3计算,盈亏平衡到厂煤价约1 077元/t,项目经济性较好。     

我国建筑石料用灰岩采矿权成交价变化分析

砂石资源采矿权出让收益是地方财政收入的重要来源。近年来,砂石资源供应紧张价格大幅上涨的背景下,本文以典型的砂石资源建筑石料用灰岩为例,分析了全国及部分典型省份建筑石料用灰岩采矿权成交价的变化特征,主要结论是2011～2018年我国建筑石料用灰岩采矿权平均成交单价与砂石市场供应价格均呈上升趋势但前者涨幅远高于后者,并且采矿权成交单价的区间分布结构年度变化差异也较大,不同区域平均成交单价年度变化规律分异明显,贵州、甘肃两省采矿权成交单价相对较低且变化幅度相对较小,山西、吉林、湖北、广西4省采矿权成交单价相对较高且变化幅度相对较大。最后,从平抑砂石价格过快上涨、加强矿业权市场建设、促进砂石资源区域供需平衡、维护良好砂石市场价格秩序的角度提出了有关政策建议。     

Time-frequency domain causality of prime building cost and macroeconomic indicators in Ghana: implications for project selection

According to the Ghana Statistical Service, construction activity generated US$3.8 billion in 2014, representing about 12.7% of nominal GDP. A key factor that most investors in the construction sector consider in project selection is cost which has escalated over the years. Therefore, we examine the co-movements and causality in the time and frequency domains between the prime building cost index (PBCI) and its disaggregates on one hand and inflation and exchange rate on the other hand in Ghana. The findings revealed that the degree of co-movement between PBCI and inflation was significant at the 5% level and occurred over the long-run, indicating that construction cost drives inflation. The degree of co-movement between the prime build cost index and exchange rate occurred within the short term. These co-movements have policy implications for substituting inflation and exchange rates in project costing by investors in Ghana. The co-movement between the PBCI and inflation in the medium to higher frequencies suggests that inflation risk-averse investors should consider short-term projects. Again, the short to medium frequency co-movements between the PBCI and exchange rate indicates that investors should consider exchange rate risk in long-term projects.     

The long-run price elasticity of residential demand for electricity: Results from a natural experiment

In one of two otherwise similar adjacent regions in a Canadian province, the price of electricity changed abruptly, substantially, and permanently. That natural experiment allows for a simple differences-in-differences calculation of the long-run price elasticity of residential demand for electricity. This analysis is of interest for two reasons. First, it is a rare circumstance when such a methodology can be used. Secondly, the magnitude of the elasticity estimate has substantial implications for utilities, regulators, and policymakers.     

Offshore manufacturing contract design based on transfer price considering green tax: a bilevel programming approach

The problem of designing offshore manufacturing contract resulting in optimal transfer price is troubling multinational companies over the past few years. This paper proposes designing offshore manufacturing contracts based on the transfer price in the form of bilevel programming problems after considering green tax. In these contract designs, a firm in a developed country sells a single product in its market. The same product is simultaneously being manufactured by another firm in a developing country with lower manufacturing cost. After anticipating the consumer demand, the seller places an order, based on which the manufacturer manufactures the ordered quantity, and offers a transfer price which in turn maximises its net profit after paying green tax to its government. While setting the transfer price, the manufacturer considers the manufacturing cost, the export duty payable to its government and the cost of shipping the product to the developed country. After buying the product from the manufacturer at the transfer price, the seller then sets the retail price which maximises its net profit after paying the import duty to its government; the retail price, however, must not be more than the maximum retail price applicable to the market. Thus, offshore manufacturing contract results in optimal after-tax profits for both the firms. An experimental study has been carried out to discuss the practical aspects of the results developed, where a US firm is offshoring its manufacturing activity to a Chinese firm in order to draw maximum profit.     

分时电价下多目标绿色可重入混合流水车间调度

针对多目标绿色可重入混合流水车间调度问题（RHFSP）的特点，在机器分配和工序排序的基础上引入分时电价机制，构建了以最小化最大完工时间、总能耗成本和碳排放为目标的绿色调度优化模型，提出了一种改进的多目标文化基因算法（MOMA）来求解该问题，通过数值实验验证了所设计的MOMA算法的可行性。实验结果表明MOMA算法在非劣解的收敛性、多样性和支配性指标方面都显著优于多目标蚁狮优化算法(MOALO)、多目标粒子群优化算法（MOPSO）和带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法（NSGA-Ⅱ），四种算法的分布性指标无显著差异。所提出的模型能够使企业有效避开高电价时段作业，合理转移用电负荷，达到降低总用电成本和碳排放的目的。     

Crude oil price forecasting: a biogeography-based optimization approach

The importance of crude oil in the world economy has made it imperative for efficient models to be designed for predicting future prices. This paper proposes an alternative approach based on a time series and biogeography-based optimization (BMMR–BBO) for the estimation of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. To evaluate the forecasting ability of the presented model, we compared its performance with those of time series functions. The results of the experiment showed that BMMR-BBO performed better than the other methods and is a fairly good option for crude oil price prediction. The proposed model can be useful in the formulation of policies related to international crude oil price estimations, development plans, and industrial production.